Why sanctions will do little or nothing in halting Putin’s invasion of Ukraine
Written by Dimeji Daniels
One fact that the West must accept, no matter how bitter, is that sanctions cannot deter Russian President Vladimir Putin from halting his invasion of Ukraine.
Putin is a man who has learnt from the past, and if the West is not careful, the sanctions will harm the West more than it does Russia.
In the past eight years, Putin had continued to shore up Russia’s strengths against sanctions by making sure that Russians cut their consumption of imports by more than a quarter.
Russian businesses also paid off their overseas creditors, thereby reducing their foreign debts by one-third.
By making its people to reduce their standard of living, Russia was able to shore up its reserves of gold and foreign currency.
Its central bank currently has a 630 billion-dollar rainy day fund.
If all of Russian exports are blocked by sanctions for a whole year, it would continue to import at its current pace and still have enough foreign reserves to boot.
On its part, the West continues its dependence on Russian energy supplies.
Statistics show that the European Union imported about 135 billion cubic metres of Russian natural gas in 2013. In 2019, it increased to 166 billion cubic metres.
Russia’s share of the E.U energy market climbed from 16.5 percent to 18.5 percent after 2014.
Russia is the world’s largest exporter of wheat and a major food supplier to Europe.
It produces 10 million barrels of oil per day which is 10 percent of global demand. A change in oil price in one region will definitely impact oil prices in other regions.
Russia is also Europe’s largest supplier of natural gas. Natural gas is used to fuel power plants and provide heat to homes and businesses.
On Tuesday, a Washington Post contributor, David Von Drehle, in an opinion piece, recalled what Joseph Stalin did to Ukraine and gave reasons he believed that Vladimir Putin is reading from Stalin’s playbook.
He wrote: “In its response, the West must keep a grip on reality. The way to deal with a Stalin wannabe is the same way the world dealt with the original: Surround, contain and hold that line with steely patience. It’s crazy to think that the Cold War is resuming — but that appears to be exactly what is happening. The same alliance that won the first time will win again, if only the West can keep its wits.”
While sanctions may hurt a little, the world, not just the West, should realize that Putin has only one thing on his mind, the reabsorption of Ukraine by Russia and must act fast to prevent what could snowball into a world war planned and fueled by a man who has nuclear weapons at his fingertips.
