Factors that could shape Ondo governorship election
As we approach the October 10 election, there are factors that could either have minimum or maximum impact on wherever the pendulum swings in the election.
Ondo State is one state where zoning seems to be a bit respected, but this does not mean that at every point candidates from other zones have not tried their luck at every election cycle. There are, however, political pundits who say zoning has never been a factor, rather other interplay of forces.
In 1999 at the return to democratic rule, Adebayo Adefarati from Akungba-Akoko in Ondo northern senatorial district was battled by Olusegun Agagu of the PDP from Iju-Odo in Ondo southern senatorial district. Adefarati did not win because he was from Ondo North, rather because the people of the southwest identified more with his party, Alliance for Democracy, than they did with the PDP at the time.
Having been a federal minister, Agagu returned to the race in 2003 against the incumbent and won. And the victory was also not because of his zone, but factors such as federal might and the crisis between Adefarati and many of his erstwhile lieutenants like Olusegun Mimiko who dumped him for Agagu.
Again in 2007, Olusegun Mimiko, who also had been a federal minister and from Ondo in Ondo Central district, contested against Agagu on the platform of little known Labour Party. Even though he was not declared winner immediately, he later got his mandate from the court and went on to win re-election.
But in 2016, the clamour that power should shift to Ondo North seemed to have worked in Oluwarotimi Akeredolu’s favour, even though some would argue that being in the same party as the centre did more magic in his favour.
Another strong factor that would shape the October 10 election in Ondo State, just as everywhere in Nigeria, is federal might. No matter what is said, this factor often trumps performance in this part of the world. And this is because it sometimes also determines whose pocket runs deeper.
As much as it is an electoral crime, how deep a candidate’s pocket runs is another major factor due to the impoverishment in the land. No matter how well we shy away from it, vote-buying where the electorate’s palms are greased to vote in favour of a particular candidate or political party is a strong factor and it would be foolhardy to overlook this.
The choice of deputy, though not taken seriously by some, will play a role in this election.
The incumbent Akeredolu and Eyitayo of the PDP both picked their deputy from the southern senatorial district, but the clamour by Ilaje people who have never been deputy or governor is strong and Akeredolu’s deputy, Lucky Aiyedatiwa, hails from Ilaje.
Jegede’s running mate is the lawmaker representing Okitupupa/Irele federal constituency. He is from Ilutitun in Okitupupa Local Government, same local government as late Governor Olusegun Agagu.
But the incumbent deputy governor of the state and candidate of the Zenith Labour Party, Agboola Ajayi, is from Ese-Odo Local government. Like Ilaje, Ese-Odo has never produced a governor in the state. His choice of deputy is Gboye Adegbenro, who hails from Ifedore Local government in Ondo Central, a council area very close to Akure where Jegede hails from.
One thing to be noted is that of the three leading political parties, PDP and ZLP have either picked their governorship or deputy governorship candidate from the south or central senatorial district, while seemingly leaving the north to APC candidate, Akeredolu whose running mate is from the southern senatorial district, which many believe could well be the battleground in this election.
One other factor is that the incumbent will also be running on his performance – how well he has delivered on the promises he made in 2016. And this is in the hands of the electorate who hold the power in this election when all is said and done. But how they choose to use their power will definitely be influenced by some of the factors earlier mentioned.
Written by Oladimeji Daniels
