COVID-19: Gradual Phase-out Of Lockdown In Nigeria
Dimeji Daniels
Today is the day many are supposed to go back to work as the ease on restrictions go into place. The Federal government and many state governments have put in place measures to prevent a spike in the number of COVID-19 cases as people are eased out of lockdown.
Some of these measures include maintaining social distancing, regular washing of hands and wearing of face masks. No doubt, many Nigerians would troop out today, having complained of being locked in without money and adequate food for several days. This is understandable as more than 90 percent of Nigeria’s 206 million population work in the non-taxed informal sector and certainly lockdown will deprive them of access to the money they require to survive.
Government, as attested to by President Muhammadu Buhari, is aware of this, hence the gradual phase-out of the lockdown. What government may not be saying in clear terms, however, is how it is at rock bottom and may find it difficult to cope in days ahead. Oil makes up 60 percent of Nigeria’s revenue and 90 percent of foreign exchange. With a shock decline in oil prices and drop in demand, a data analytics company Vortexa says seven vessels carrying 12 million barrels of unsold Nigerian oil are currently stranded at sea.
Unfortunately, Nigeria cannot halt production as some oil wells are too old to be restarted once they go idle. But when the country runs out of vessels to collect its crude, there would be no choice but to permanently close the pumps on these old wells.
Already, the United Nations has predicted that the corona virus will likely kill at least 300,000 people in Africa and push nearly 30 million into poverty.
Armed with this awareness and its economic woes, the Nigerian government approached the IMF for a loan. But beyond this, government is also aware that keeping its over 90 percent population which works in the informal sector continuously locked up has far reaching security implications.
Nigeria also has its fair share of the 1.4 billion school children at home the world over. But all these would be nothing compared to a second spike in the number of infections should lockdown be hastily lifted.
The World Health Organization says countries lifting lockdown must meet the following criteria:
1. Disease transmission is under control.
2. Health systems are able to “detect, test, isolate and treat every case and trace every contact”.
3. Hot spot risks are minimized in vulnerable places, such as nursing homes.
4.Schools, workplaces and other essential places have established preventive measures.
5. The risk of importing new cases “can be managed”.
6. Communities are fully educated, engaged and empowered to live under a new normal.
Can Nigeria be said to have met all these conditions? Does the country at present have the capacity to do all these?
During the Spanish flu in 1918, San Fransisco in the US thought it had got a handle on the flu and then lifted the lockdown in place. The flu bounced back and more infections and deaths than earlier were recorded.
This is why experts are advising that governments must be careful about lifting the lockdown.
It is good to get the economy back on its feet, but certainly not with people lying on their backs either on isolation centers’ beds or in graves.
